Our High Ambition pathway for Japan shows a 64-68% reduction in total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (including Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)) by 2035 from 2013 levels. Japan has announced its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target to reduce emissions 60% by 2035 and 73% by 2040 from 2013 levels.1 Its 2030 NDC target commits to a 46% or more (50%) reduction from 2013 and net-zero emissions by 2050.2 Japan’s total GHG emissions peaked in 2013 and declined by 24% between 2013 and 2023.3,4 Although emissions are declining, meeting its 2030 target requires increasing the average annual emissions reduction rate from around 3% between 2013 and 2023 to 5% through 2030.
As of 2022, emissions stem primarily from electricity CO2 (41%), followed by industry CO2 (16%), and transportation CO2 (17%).3,5 To achieve the High Ambition 2035 target, key mitigation strategies include: accelerating offshore wind deployment; accelerating coal phaseout in electricity and coal phasedown in industry before 2035, coupled with electrification and energy demand reductions; accelerating gas phasedown; and increasing zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) uptake. Energy security and industrial development are key priorities for Japan, but relying on strategies with uncertain economic and emission outcomes, like ammonia and hydrogen, may delay renewable deployment and achievement of NDC targets.
2035 Target: Total GHG Emissions Reductions
via CGS High Ambition Pathways
-64 to -68%
Relative to NDC Base Year
2013
Official 2035 NDC target
-60%
Official 2030 NDC target
-46 to -50%
Net zero target
2050
A High Ambition 2035 target for Japan shows a 64-68% emission reduction from the 2013 level including LULUCF (Figure 1). Our High Ambition transition pathway shows rapid emissions reductions after 2025 to achieve Japan’s 2030 NDC, as emissions decline by 46-50% from 2013 levels, with a slight decline in the reduction rate after 2040, nearing net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 (emissions are reduced >95% from 2013).
Japan’s total emissions, including LULUCF, peaked in 2013 and have since declined by 24% by 2023,4 with reductions of 25%, 11%, and 15% in the electricity CO2, industry CO2, and transportation CO2, respectively.3,5 Despite the resurgence of fossil fuels after the Fukushima nuclear incident in 2011, growing renewable energy and declining energy demand have driven down emissions, along with the gradual restart of nuclear power in recent years. Japan’s NDC targets a 46% or more (50%) reduction from 2013 levels (including LULUCF) by 2030, followed by 60% by 2035, and 73% by 2040, en route to net-zero by 2050.1,2 Our analysis suggests that the current average annual emissions reduction rate of 3% (between 2013 and 2023) will need to be increased to 5%, 5%, and 6% between 2023 and the target year to achieve the 2030, 2035, and 2040 NDC targets, respectively.
Fossil fuel generation in Japan has been declining since 2013, driven by a reduction in gas generation alongside growth in solar and the gradual restart of nuclear power. In 2024, coal and gas contributed over 32% and 34%, respectively, to total electricity generation while renewables accounted for 23%, with 11% from solar and wind (Figure 2).6 Japan remains one of the few Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries still building coal power capacity domestically, with 9.3 GW of new coal power added between 2020 and 2023.8 In 2024, fossil fuel power plants accounted for 50% of Japan’s total installed electricity capacity, renewables for 40%, and nuclear for 10%. New solar and wind deployment has slowed down in recent years, from over 7-8 GW annually in 2016-2020 to less than 5 GW in 2023 and less than 2 GW in 2024.9
Under the High Ambition scenario, Japan’s total electricity generation mix reaches nearly 54% renewables by 2035, driven by accelerated solar and wind deployment — including ambitious offshore wind installations — and coal phaseout (Figure 2).10 Nuclear generation will remain significant, increasing its share of total generation, while gas generation continues to decline. Specifically, electricity sector transitions under the High Ambition pathway include:
- Increasing the share of wind and solar power generation from 11% in 20249 to 44% by 2035, with buildouts of 14 GW/year from 2025 to 2030 and 11 GW/year from 2030 to 2035, more than triple the current annual deployment (3 GW in 2024).
- Reducing the share of coal power generation from 32% in 2024 to 3% by 2035, canceling coal power capacity in pre-construction stages, and stopping the development of new coal projects.
- Increasing the share of nuclear generation from 8% in 2024 to 12% in 2030 and 17% in 2035.
- Decreasing the share of gas generation from 34% in 2024 to 21% by 2035, with no new gas expansion by canceling 7 GW of pre-construction projects.11
Japan is the only G7 country currently developing new coal projects, and its share of non-fossil generation in its electricity mix is the lowest among the G7 countries10 despite recent but slowed progress on renewables, an advanced industrial base, and offshore wind potential. Under our High Ambition pathway for Japan, domestic coal demand declines by 58% by 2030 and 75% by 2035, gas demand falls by 5% and 23%, and oil demand decreases by 2% and 12%, respectively (Figure 3). Current domestic strategies heavily emphasize hydrogen and ammonia co-firing technologies13 despite the uncertainties in their carbon footprint and economic feasibility, which may delay the deployment of proven renewable energy technologies. Japan’s leadership, as well as its economic and political influence across the Asia-Pacific region, brings significant responsibility and potential in shaping the regional energy transition.
Citations
Government of Japan. Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2025).
Government of Japan. Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2021).
Gütschow, J., Pflüger, M. & Busch, D. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2023) v2.6.1. Zenodo
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15016289 (2025).
Friedlingstein, P. et al. Global Carbon Budget 2023. Earth System Science Data 15, 5301–5369 (2023).
Hoesly, R. et al. CEDS v_2025_03_18 Gridded Data 0.5 degree. Zenodo (2025).
Ember. Electricity Data Explorer - Open Source Global Electricity Data. Ember (2025).
NGFS. NGFS Scenarios Portal. Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS)
https://www.ngfs.net/ngfs-scenarios-portal/ (2024).
Global Coal Plant Tracker. Global Energy Monitor https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-plant-tracker/ (2024)
https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-plant-tracker/ (2024).
Ember. Electricity Data Explorer - Open Source Global Electricity Data. Ember (2025).
Tachev, V. 50 Years of G7: The Group’s Climate Leadership Hinges on Japan and Its Energy Policies. Energy Tracker Asia
https://energytracker.asia/g7-climate-leadership-hinges-on-japan-and-its-energy-policies/ (2025).
GEM. Global Oil and Gas Plant Tracker. Global Energy Monitor (GEM) (2025).
KPMG & Kearney. Statistical Review of World Energy, 73rd Edition. Energy Insitute
https://www.energyinst.org/statisticalreview/resources-and-data-downloads (2024).
Cabinet Secretariat of Japan (CAS). The Basic Policy for the Realization of GX. A Roadmap for the Next 10 Years. (2023).
Our Work
Other CGS Research
Enhancing Global Ambition for 2035: Assessment of High-Ambition Country Pathways
The State of Global Coal Power Factsheet Series: Japan
Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States
