Our High Ambition pathway for Australia shows a 69-73% reduction in total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (including Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)) by 2035 from 2005 levels. For its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets, Australia commits to reducing emissions by 43% by 2030 and 62-70% by 2035from 2005 levels,1,2 as well as reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2050.1,2 Australia’s total GHG emissions peaked in 2006 and declined by 31% between 2007 and 2023. As emissions are declining, meeting the 2030 target requires accelerating the average annual emissions reduction rate from 2% between 2007 and 2023 to 3%.
Electricity CO2 is currently the largest source of GHG emissions in Australia, making the decarbonization of a fossil fuel-dominated power system critical to achieve emissions reductions. To achieve the High Ambition 2035 target, key mitigation strategies include: a nearly 100% clean power system by 2035 with coal power phaseout and doubled to tripled annual solar and wind buildout; expansion of methane abatement strategies in the agricultural and fossil fuel production sectors; strengthened EV policies focused on EV adoption, infrastructure buildout, and national EV targets; and export diversification, including increased low-carbon exports.
2035 Target: Total GHG Emissions Reductions
via CGS High Ambition Pathways
-69 to -73%
Relative to NDC Base Year
2005
Official 2035 NDC target
-62 to -70%
Official 2030 NDC target
-43%
Net zero target
2050
A High Ambition 2035 pathway for Australia achieves a 69-73% emission reduction from the 2005 level including LULUCF emissions, or a 56-60% reduction excluding LULUCF (Figure 1). By downscaling the original GCAM outputs of the Australia_NZ region, we show a High Ambition transition for Australia where GHG emissions, including LULUCF, are projected to decline more rapidly from 2025 to 2030, with a slight decline in the annual reduction rate after 2030. Under this scenario, emissions decrease by 54-58% by 2030 and negative emissions are reached by 2050.
Australia’s NDC targets a 43% reduction of 2005 GHG emissions levels (including LULUCF) by 2030 and 62-70% by 2035, as well as achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2050.1,2 Total GHG emissions peaked in 2006 and declined by 31% by 2023,3 with electricity CO2 emissions declining 17% during this period but still comprising the largest share of total emissions (38%) in 2022. Our analysis suggests delivering the NDC target will require increasing the average annual emissions reduction rate from 2% between 2007 and 2023 to 3% through 2030. Emissions reduction progress has been mixed, partly due to changes in land-use change CO2 emissions over time. Land use CO2 emissions have shifted from a substantial source of emissions (12% of total) in the NDC base year (2005) to a major sink, leading to increased overall reduction that may delay action in other sectors.
Australia’s electricity generation is still dominated by fossil fuels where 45% are sourced from coal and 17% are sourced from gas. Renewables account for 35% of total generation, including 18% from solar, 12% from wind, and 5% from hydro (Figure 2).4 Renewable energy generation has tripled over the past decade, largely driven by strong growth in solar photovoltaics (PV). The country aims to increase this share to 82% by 2030,7 primarily through accelerated solar deployment from distributed systems.
Under the High Ambition scenario, Australia’s electricity generation mix is nearly 100% renewables (97%) by 2035, with accelerated solar and wind buildout, reduced gas generation, and near total phase-out of coal by 2035 (Figure 2). Specifically, electricity sector transitions under the High Ambition pathway include:
- Increasing the share of solar and wind from 30% in 2024 to 80% by 2030 and 85% by 2035, with an average buildout of 20 GW/year from 2025 to 2030, and 12 GW/year from 2030 to 2035.
- Decreasing coal generation by 95% by 2030 and 97% by 2035 from 2024 levels and canceling coal projects in pre-construction stages (945 MW).8
- Reducing gas generation by 46% by 2030 and 85% by 2035 from 2024 levels and preventing new gas expansion.
The fossil fuel industry plays a significant role in Australia’s economy and is expected to continue to grow with new infrastructure being developed for production and export. Fossil fuel exports are expected to remain at similar levels until at least 2035, supported by federal government policies and the approval of new coal and gas export projects.10 Under our High Ambition pathway for Australia, domestic coal demand declines by 86% by 2030 and 90% by 2035 from the 2024 level; gas demand falls by 27% and 52%; and oil demand decreases by 21% and 30%, respectively (Figure 3). Developing a diversified export strategy with increasing shares of low-carbon products and reducing fossil exports would improve alignment with an overall High Ambition strategy.
Citations
Commonwealth of Australia. Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution. Communication 2022. (2022).
Commonwealth of Australia. Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. (2025).
Gütschow, J., Pflüger, M. & Busch, D. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2023) v2.6.1. Zenodo
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15016289 (2025).
Ember. Electricity Data Explorer - Open Source Global Electricity Data. Ember (2025).
Hoesly, R. et al. CEDS v_2025_03_18 Gridded Data 0.5 degree. Zenodo (2025).
NGFS. NGFS Climate Scenarios for Central Banks and Supervisors - Phase V. The Central Banks and Supervisors Network for
Greening the Financial System (NGFS) (2024).
Commonwealth of Australia. Annual Climate Change Statement 2023. (2023).
GEM et al. Boom and Bust Coal 2025 - Global Energy Monitor. Global Energy Monitor (GEM) (2025).
KPMG & Kearney. Statistical Review of World Energy, 73rd Edition. Energy Insitute
https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review/resources-and-data-downloads (2024).
Morton, A. Australian fossil fuel exports ranked second only to Russia for climate damage with ‘no plan’ for reduction. The Guardian (2024).
Our Work
Other CGS Research
Analyzing sectoral policies for deep decarbonization: the case of national freight transportation
Enhancing Global Ambition for 2035: Assessment of High-Ambition Country Pathways
Overview of Methane Mitigation Policies in Global Key Emitters Beyond the United States and China
The State of Global Coal Power Factsheet Series
Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States
