Our High Ambition pathway for Canada shows a 57-61% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (including Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)) from 2005 levels by 2035. For its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets, the government of Canada commits to reducing emissions (excluding LULUCF) by 40-45% by 2030 and 45-50% by 2035, both from 2005 levels, and to achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2050.1 Canada’s GHG emissions (including LULUCF) have already begun to decline, peaking in 2007 and falling by 11% by 2023.2 This decline is driven largely by reductions in the power sector, which have offset increasing emissions from fossil fuel production (both CO2 and CH4). Meeting its NDC targets requires accelerating the average annual emissions reduction rate from 1% between 2007 and 2023 to 6-8% from 2023 through 2030.
Transport CO2, oil and gas production, and industry CO2 together account for more than half of total GHG emissions in Canada. While the country’s power sector is fairly clean, further decarbonization could lead to additional emission reductions in the short term. To achieve the High Ambition 2035 target, key mitigation strategies include: limiting oil and gas infrastructure expansion and significantly reducing its methane emissions; achieving 100% clean electricity through wind and solar scale-up; accelerating EV deployment; and implementing industrial decarbonization strategies.
2035 Target: Total GHG Emissions Reductions
via CGS High Ambition Pathways
-57 to -61%
Relative to NDC Base Year
2005
Official 2035 NDC target
-45 to -50%
Official 2030 NDC target
-40 to -45%
Net zero target
2050
A High Ambition pathway for Canada shows a 57-61% reduction in total GHG emissions, including LULUCF, by 2035 from 2005 levels (Figure 1). In this pathway, emissions decline faster after 2025, reaching the net zero target by 2050, leading to a 44-48% reduction in 2030 and a 57-61% reduction by 2035 from 2005, or a 51-55% reduction from 2023. Under the Current Policies scenario, GHG emissions (including LULUCF) decrease gradually through 2030, with a slower decline after 2030, achieving 27-31% and 33-37% of emissions reductions by 2030 and 2035, respectively.
Canada’s GHG emissions, including LULUCF, have decreased by 11% from its peak in 2007 to 2023, with a sharp drop in 2020 followed by recovery and stabilization after 2022.2 Power sector emissions declined during this period, while emissions from fossil production (both CO2 and CH4) increased, accounting for 21% of total GHG emissions (including LULUCF) by 2022. Transport CO2 and industry CO2 contributed 22% and 15%, respectively.4 The 2030 and 2035 NDC targets of 40-45% and 45-50% reduction from 2005 levels imply a 35-40% reduction in emissions (excluding LULUCF) from 2023 to 2030, and a 40-46% reduction from 2023 to 2035. This corresponds to an average annual emissions reduction rate of 6-7% through 2030 and 4-5% through 2035.
As of 2024, 78% of Canada’s electricity generation came from non-fossil sources, with hydro accounting for 54%, nuclear for 13%, and wind and solar for 9% (Figure 2). Fossil fuels made up the remaining 22%, with gas contributing 17% and coal 4%.3 Further decarbonizing the power sector could lead to additional emission reductions in Canada in the short term.
Under the High Ambition scenario, 89% of Canada’s generation comes from renewable sources by 2035, achieved by maintaining hydro generation, accelerating solar and wind deployment, phasing out coal, and significantly reducing gas generation. Specifically, power sector transitions under the High Ambition pathway include:
- Increasing the share of solar and wind from 9% in 2024 to 32% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, accelerating wind and solar deployment from 2 GW/year in 2024 to 29 GW/year from 2025 to 2030 and 25 GW/year from 2030 to 2035.
- Increasing the share of non-fossil fuel generation to 88% by 2030 and 97% by 2035.
- Phasing out coal by 2030.
- Reducing gas generation by 74% by 2035 from 2024 levels.
The oil and gas industry plays a significant role in Canada’s economy. In 2022, it accounted for 3.2% of GDP and 20% of national exports, while also serving as an important source of revenue for both provincial and federal governments.7 Under our High Ambition pathway for Canada, domestic coal demand declines by 75% by 2030 and 80% by 2035 from 2024 levels, while gas demand falls by 29% and 47%, and oil demand decreases by 32% and 47%, respectively (Figure 3).
Citations
Government of Canada. Canada’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. (2025).
Gütschow, J., Pflüger, M. & Busch, D. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2023) v2.6.1. Zenodo
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15016289 (2025).
Ember. Electricity Data Explorer - Open Source Global Electricity Data. Ember (2025).
Hoesly, R. et al. CEDS v_2025_03_18 Gridded Data 0.5 degree. Zenodo (2025).
NGFS. NGFS Climate Scenarios for Central Banks and Supervisors - Phase V. The Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) (2024).
KPMG & Kearney. Statistical Review of World Energy, 73rd Edition. Energy Insitute
https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review/resources-and-data-downloads (2024).
CAPP. Energy and the Canadian Economy. Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP)
https://www.capp.ca/en/our-priorities/energy-and-the-canadian-economy/ (2024).
Our Work
Other CGS Research
How will Canada's upcoming election impact federal climate policy?
Enhancing Global Ambition for 2035: Assessment of High-Ambition Country Pathways
