Global Ambition

Our results suggest that a High Ambition pathway can achieve a 39-43% global GHG reduction by 2035 from 2023 levels. Under this pathway, emissions decline significantly through 2050, reaching just below 10 GtCO2e in 2050. This pathway to net-zero CO₂ around 2050, combined with targeted non-CO₂ abatement, would result in a peak temperature of 1.7°C. Limiting warming to 1.5°C or as close to it as possible is critical, as reducing peak temperature after overshoot is highly uncertain.⁵

Global GHG emissions, including LULUCF, increased by 43% from 1990 to 2023. In 2022, most emissions came from the power sector (23%), followed by methane (19%), transportation (18%), and other energy supply (17%).^1,3 Electricity generation, through a tenfold increase in wind and solar capacity and a 50% reduction in unabated fossil power, will be the largest CO₂ emissions reducer under our High Ambition pathway. Methane abatement across sectors could also play a significant role, reducing global methane emissions by 35%, contributing to nearly 40% of total GHG reductions by 2035.

The global High Ambition pathway reflects High Ambition country-specific scenarios for 12 countries that incorporate each country’s contexts and circumstances for delivering decisive, accelerated action beyond current trends. The rest of the world is based on the GCAM Net Zero 2050 scenario from the NGFS 2024 release (see Resources page for information on scenarios).⁴

These trends resulted from a combination of historical emissions, development stage, economic structure, resource endowment, technological and institutional capacity, and other country-specific factors that influence mitigation potential over the coming decade. The following table (Table 1) summarizes the High Ambition pathways for G20 countries, which play a key role in determining global trends.